June 17,2015; 11:06PM,EDT
Moisture from Bill will enhance rainfall across part of the Midwest by Friday and some of the Northeast this weekend, leading to localized flood concerns.
During Saturday and Sunday, downpours will spread over part of the Northeast.
At the minimum, enough rain will fall to cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas with the likelihood of travel delays and disruptions to daily activities.
There is the potential for small stream flooding and perhaps rises on some of the major rivers, where the rain persists.
In a significant part of the Ohio Valley, 3-6 inches of rain is forecast with locally higher amounts.
In part of the Northeast, 1-3 inches of rain is forecast but amounts can also be higher at the local level, especially in the central Appalachians.
How strong the high remains will determine the north/south extent of Bill's heaviest rain and greatest risk for flooding over the Ohio Valley, the mid-Atlantic and New England.
RELATED:
Bill Threatens Major Flooding in Texas
Dangerous Heat to Sizzle Southeast Through Sunday
Top Five US Cities Most Vulnerable to Hurricanes
Tropical systems of this nature are prone to interacting with non-tropical features and can result in a narrow zone of intense rainfall and flooding or sometimes a pattern of more isolated drenching showers and thunderstorms.
In this case, it could be a combination of both.
According to AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "Since the system [Bill] is still days away, we don't want to spray a huge area of the Midwest and Northeast with flooding, when in fact there is uncertainty about the rainfall pattern this far out."
A front dropping in across the Upper Midwest and southern Canada may stay totally separate from Bill's moisture or join with it and enhance the rainfall.
According to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity, one state that could experience an elevated risk of flooding is West Virginia, due to the atmospheric setup and the mountainous topography.
"A pulse of heavy rain associated with the remnants of Bill could hit West Virginia and neighboring portions of Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and Ohio Saturday night into Sunday," Margusity said.
The area of potential torrential rain and flooding downpours could shift north or south depending on the strength of an area of high pressure in the South and the front approaching from Canada.
That swath of drenching downpours could then continue eastward into the Interstate 95 swath from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia and perhaps New York City.
"As Bills begins to roll out of the southern Plains, we will narrow down the zone with the greatest potential for flooding in the Midwest and Northeast and adjust timing accordingly," Abrams said.
Because of the uncertainty of the timing and location of the heaviest rain, people should not change outdoor plans, but be prepared by having an alternative in place.
- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPAMy local forecaster seems to think that the moisture from Bill will go through Northern Ohio, Northern Pa, NY and New England. That will depend on the position of the Western Atlantic high pressure system. So one out of two scenarios are possible for SE Pa. 1). If it goes north of us Sunday could be a hot humid day with opportunities for severe weather 2). If it comes over us or just to the south we could see heavy rain if the system is still intact. Right now I think there is too much uncertainty.
Michael Pannoni · Top CommenterNote how the next two weeks literally have the boundary between warm/hot and cool/mild at the Mason-Dixon Line (literally MD/DE on south). DC will be 85 or higher over the next week, while many parts of Northern New England will struggle to get out of the 60s after tomorrow, with a better chance of wetter weather the further north you go. Note how this tends to be the opposite in El Nino winters as opposed to during the summer.
Aaron Ginther · Top Commenter · Central Virginia Community CollegeHere in central VA we're supposed to stay in the 90's the rest of the week, going into the weekend and possibly on into next week as well. Today we hit a high of 97, with a heat index around 110. There were places in NC that had actual air temperatures exceed 100. I'll be heading down to the Grand Strand next week so I'll be in the SC heat.
Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityWhere? Globaly maybe, west likely, east not a chance. I live in Cleveland and so far in 2015 ytd we are running about 3.5F below average. With half of the year in, we would have to avarage 3.5F above normal ever month for the rest of 2015 just to end year at normal, and that is very unlikely. So you need to be more specific when you make claims like that
Christopher E. Corrigan · Top Commenter · Floor organizer/Trouble shooter at Self/Boston Globe
Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPANah. I think it will be an above normal summer but not excessively hot. Depends on where you live. My local guys did a summer forecast yesterday and their thinking is June will end up 2-3+ (We are 2.6+ now), July maybe 1-2+ though it could be a little bit lower or higher depending on the western Atlantic ridge and if typhoons curve northeastward into the northern Pacific. They feel in early Aug a brief cool down will occur (Not like last year but we may have 4-7 days stretch of low humidity (Not certain about that). So his prediction is August will be normal but September will be warmer somewhere in the range of 2-3+. Enjoy the warmth. Next January you may be wishing it back.
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Filing/Inventory Clerk at Independent Distributors Inc.If it wasn't for this storm, the Eastern Great Lakes would probably be warm this weekend, but unfortunately that is not going to happen at least in my location.
- Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityIt is looking around normal here this weekend here. Out normal hits 80 on June 18 and stays at 80 or above until August 29th. However if it rains all weekend it will be a waste of warmth like this past weekend was. Looks like my weekend trip to the Presque Isle beach in Erie, PA will be postopned second weekend in the row.
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Filing/Inventory Clerk at Independent Distributors Inc.Where I am, this weekend might have daytime temps near to slightly below average. Near average I can easily take, especially if it is sunny and dry. It is just disappointing that the warmth that initially looked like would come this weekend, bringing temps into the 80s, is now being pulled back thanks to the remnants of Bill.
Cottone Mathere · Top Commenter
Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State UniversityJust to refresh everyone's memory: http://www.accuweather.com/en/ weather-news/ us-summer-forecast-2015-nor theast-warm-west-drought/ 46084273. - Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityI am sure this will turn out to be a bust, but believe it or not, in my area it has been correct. It says "strong storms early" and that is exactly what we have been getting day after day this month, and the temp is as of now exactly at normal for June month to date.
- Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
- Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityAfter biblical downpours of rain in the last 4 days, Cleveland OH needs more rain from the tropical storm like we need hole in our head..but looks like we will still get it, Another summer weekend in the toilet for us. Just like 2 summers ago.
- Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
- Christopher E. Corrigan · Top Commenter · Floor organizer/Trouble shooter at Self/Boston GlobeThat means the weather is so uncertain in the NorthEast...We just have to wait and see and look out the window if it is sunny or raining or whatever....
- Cottone Mathere · Top CommenterOn short time-scale, yes...although a general forecast of wetter weather over a several day period is good, since odds are that more storms will pop up...also, in the southern mid atlantic, a thunderstorm complex could roll thru on Wed. night...but it is true, in that it is not like in cooler seasons, when on Wed. morning, one can get a overall accurate forecast for rain during, say, Friday morning, that clears out sometime Friday afternoon.
No comments:
Post a Comment