Published: February 11,2015
A two-plus week snow siege has smashed records in parts of New England, including Boston, Worcester, Massachusetts and Bangor, Maine.
(MORE: Marcus Sets All-Time Snow Records | Massachusetts Update)
Now we are tracking a duo of snowmakers for the Northeast through the coming Valentine's Day weekend.
Right now, it appears the first system will bring minor snow amounts to the Northeast. Over the weekend, a more impactful storm may develop, bringing snow, wind and a reinforcing blast of bitter cold air. A large amount of forecast uncertainty exists with the potential storm this weekend, which we explain in the second section below (System #2).
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Winter Storm Central)
System #1: Through Early Friday
A powerful arctic cold front that plunged out of the Canadian prairies and its vigorous jet stream disturbance will set the stage for more snow in the Northeast starting Thursday.(FORECAST: Coldest Air This Winter Ahead)
Mainly light to moderate snow from this system has been falling in the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Overnight Wednesday through Thursday, the cold front will spread mainly light snow across the Northeast region.
(INTERACTIVE RADAR: Track the Snow | Winter Alerts)
Thursday night into Friday, low pressure will intensify off the coast of southeast New England then head toward Nova Scotia.
We think the deepening surface low will remain far enough offshore to keep the best chance for 6+ inches of snow offshore of coastal New England.
Snowfall amounts in the Boston metro should remain very light, generally around an inch or so. Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket will generally see 3 inches or less of total snow through Friday morning, though some ocean-effect snowbands may linger over parts of Cape Cod.
Lighter amounts (dusting to an inch) are anticipated over the rest of New England and the Northeast.
(FORECASTS: Boston | Providence | NYC)
Perhaps the biggest impact will be strong winds behind the arctic front and developing offshore low, producing areas of blowing and drifting snow, given the heavy snowpack in place over New England and parts of Upstate New York.
This isn't the only future snowmaker to watch.
System #2: Valentine's Day Weekend
Only those in the Northeast who love snow and bitter cold will be pleased with Valentine's Day weekend 2015 weather: another arctic cold front, another stripe of snow, another offshore low to monitor.Rinse and repeat, right?
Yes, another arctic front will spread a stripe of mainly light snow from the Great Lakes on Friday into the East on Saturday.
Yes, low pressure will wrap up again off the Eastern seaboard Saturday night into Sunday. This offshore low, however, will be much stronger than the first system
A low track near the so-called "40/70 benchmark" (a meteorologist's rule-of-thumb: Many major Northeast snowstorms track near 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude, about 90 miles south of Nantucket Island) would bring yet another threat of heavy snow and strong winds to at least coastal New England.
But you probably know this drill by now. If the low intensifies far enough offshore, however, most of the significant snow will remain offshore.
(MAPS: Ten-Day Forecast)
Our forecast: It is still too soon (3+ days out) to determine whether the offshore low will track close enough to bring heavy snow to parts of New England and the Northeast. If a low track sufficiently close to the coast to bring heavier snow would take place, peak impacts would occur Saturday night into Sunday with the heaviest snow in coastal New England.
(FORECASTS: Boston | Providence | Bangor, Maine)
Regardless of the exact low track, we may see a 6-12 hour period of moderate, perhaps even heavy snow, to the west-northwest of the offshore low along a surface trough which may include parts of the New York City metro Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Behind the arctic front and intensifying offshore low, bitterly cold air will settle in, driven by strong winds, leading to dangerous wind chills and areas of blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures may remain stuck in the single digits or, at best, teens much of Sunday in New England, with morning lows in the single digits above or below zero.
(FORECAST: Coldest Air This Winter Ahead)
Keep all this in mind if you have a Valentine's night plans, or are simply trying to clear a path in your driveway or sidewalk in the Northeast this weekend.
Again, check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this siege of winter weather.
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