Tropical Update: Cristina Off the Coast of Mexico; Atlantic Quiet

By: Stu Ostro
Published: June 13,2014

Atlantic Basin Satellite Image

• INTERACTIVE SATELLITE

Eastern Pacific Basin Satellite Image

• INTERACTIVE SATELLITE AND MODEL TRACKS
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Western Pacific Satellite

• INTERACTIVE SATELLITE

Quick Summary:
- Cristina weakening quickly
- No threat to land
- Atlantic quiet until further notice
Eastern Pacific / Cristina
Cristina is a far cry from what it was just 24 hours ago. The core thunderstorm cluster is weaker, and the once-insulated eye has been broken into by unfriendly outside air. With the interior of the storm falling apart, and the conditions around it becoming less capable of sustaining it, Cristina may not even be a hurricane tomorrow night.
The National Hurricane Center puts it perfectly:
"After going through a remarkable rapid intensification yesterday, Cristina has now rapidly weakened at a similar rate. Decreasing SSTs (water temperatures), along with increasing shear and dry air aloft, should generally continue to weaken Cristina."
I can't argue with that. Cristina will soon be a non-story.
Atlantic Basin
It's quiet out there now. Nothing much has changed since yesterday. Strong winds aloft nearly everywhere will likely prevent development for the next several days, and probably for more than that.

But here's the deal: the GFS (American) model continues to remain an outlier in developing a strong tropical system in the Caribbean next week. Yes, next week, roughly 5-6 days from now. It's a consistent solution to the extent that the development is in roughly the same area and at roughly the same date on the calendar. It's moving up in the forecast and no longer just a "day-10" fantasy. You can't just ignore it.
Still, with all the available evidence at hand (the ECMWF (European) forecast being just one piece that couldn't be more different - instead showing a big 'ol high pressure system in there), you have no choice but to weigh the doomsday scenario very lightly.
(MORE: Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook | New NHC Storm Surge Maps in 2014)
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This image of Hurricane Irene on Aug. 26, 2011, was photographed by one of the Expedition 28 crew members on board the International Space Station. The eye was at 31.2 degrees north latitude and 77.5 degrees west longitude moving due north 360 degrees at 14 miles per hour. (NASA)