By: By Chris Dolce
Published: February 12,2014
(MINUTE-BY-MINUTE UPDATES: Winter Storm Pax Live Blog)
Winter Storm Alerts
Current Radar
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Middle Atlantic, Northeast Snow
Wednesday Night Forecast
Thursday's Forecast
Northeast Snow Forecast
(MORE: February Peak for Northeast Snowstorms)
As is almost always the case, the exact track of the coastal low will be crucial. A track a bit farther offshore would draw snow toward the coast, while a farther inland track would shift the rain/snow line farther inland.
Although subtle differences in the track of low could make a difference in where the rain/snow sets up, there is confidence that a swath of the Northeast will be impacted by heavy snow and strong winds.
Timing:
As our forecast maps illustrate, the snow will start Wednesday night in the Middle Atlantic, including Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia. Snow should arrive in New York City after midnight. From there, the snow will then spread northward through the Northeast region Thursday morning into Thursday night, including Albany, N.Y., Boston, Mass., Hartford, Conn., Concord, N.H. and Bangor, Maine. Friday morning, snow may continue in parts of New England before finally ending later in the day.
How Much Snow?
At this time, we expect a swath of 5 to 12 inches in a corridor from Virginia to Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, southeast New York and New England. Higher elevation locations in New England, including the Berkshires, could see up to 18 inches of snow.
Significant snow will affect parts of the Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City metros initially, before potentially mixing with or changing to sleet or rain. Accumulations of 5 inches or more are possible before any potential changeover occurs. As alluded to earlier, this will depend on the exact track of the low pressure system, so accumulations could be more or less.
Locations north and west of the I-95 corridor will likely see the heaviest accumulations since they will have less of a chance of mixing with rain or sleet. Up to a foot of snow is possible through this corridor.
Farther north, significant snow is expected in Hartford, Conn., Worcester, Mass., Concord, N.H. and Bangor, Maine. Depending on how far west warm air is pulled into New England by the intensifying area of low pressure, these locations could also mix with freezing rain or sleet for a time before ending as snow.
For Boston, snow is likely to start with 3 to 5 inches forecast, however it appears a change to rain is likely as milder air is drawn into coastal areas from the Atlantic. Locations to the west of I-495 have the greatest chance of seeing heavier snow.
Bottom line: No matter where the rain and snow lines eventually set up, there will likely be widespread travel disruption in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast from Virginia to Maine in the Wednesday night through early Friday time frame.
Winds:
As the area of low pressure intensifies, winds will also increase near and inland from the Northeast coastline throughout the day and into the evening. This could lead to blowing snow and poor visibility at times, particularly in New England.
Sustained winds of 15 to 30 mph are expected with higher gusts. The strongest wind gusts could potentially approach 40 or 50 mph from near the New York City area into coastal New England.
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest updates on Winter Storm Pax.
MORE: Winter Storm Pax Photos
Ice and snow cover Interstate 26, early Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2014, in Columbia, S.C. (AP Photo/Mary Ann Chastain)
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