Winter Storm Pax Forecast: Major Ice Storm, Heavy Snow in South; Potential Northeast Snowstorm

By: By Chris Dolce

Published: February 11,2014

 

 

 

 

 

If you live in the South, now is the time to prepare for another disruptive, potentially crippling winter storm. Winter Storm Pax will bring a long swath of ice and snow across the South through midweek, and the ice may accumulate enough in some areas to knock out power for thousands of people and litter roads with fallen tree limbs and downed wires. Travel will become difficult, if not impossible, in the hardest-hit areas.

Winter Weather Alerts

• South-Central Alerts
• Mid-Atlantic Alerts

(MORE: WeatherReady Winter Safety Tips | Safety Before the Storm)
Pax will also impact the Middle Atlantic and Northeast with snow and ice later in the week.
The National Weather Service has posted winter storm watches, warnings and advisories from the Southern Plains to the Carolinas and north to New Jersey in anticipation of dangerous winter weather conditions. Now is the time to plan. Think ahead about how you will handle power outages at home and where you want to be if roads become impassable.
(MORE: City-Specific Timing and Impacts | States Preparing for Pax)
Let's start with the two rounds of wintry weather expected in the South.

Snow and Ice in South: Round 1

Current Radar

• INTERACTIVE RADAR

Tuesday's Forecast

The southern side of Winter Storm Pax begins the way several previous events, including Leon, did. Instead of a well-defined low pressure system, there will instead be a broad area of moist, rising air across the South while very cold arctic air pushes in from the Midwest. This combination will produce an east-west stripe of wintry weather. Indeed, through Tuesday there probably won't be a low pressure center to track at all.
Tuesday, this initial round of snow, sleet and a little freezing rain will move from northern Mississippi to northern Alabama, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina and southern North Carolina as the day progresses. Accumulations with this first round should be light in most areas.
Attention then turns to a major round of snow, sleet and freezing rain that will also begin to develop on Tuesday.
(FORECAST: Shreveport | Birmingham | Atlanta)

South Ice and Snow: Round 2

Tuesday into Wednesday, another wave of moisture will spread a more significant round of wintry precipitation across the South as weak low pressure forms in the Gulf of Mexico and tracks eastward. This moisture will ride over the top of a cold air mass nosing its way southward to the east of the Appalachians.
Initially, some freezing drizzle or freezing rain may affect parts of central, north and east Texas during the day on Tuesday. This could result in slick travel conditions for Austin, Dallas and Tyler.

Wednesday's Forecast

Ice Accumulation Threat

Power Outage Potential

48-Hour Snowfall Forecast

Later Tuesday into Tuesday night, a mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will then spread across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, northern and central Mississippi, northern Alabama and eventually northern Georgia.
By Wednesday, we will see a widespread area of snow, sleet and freezing rain from the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont of north Georgia and the western Carolinas, spreading farther east into eastern North Carolina and the South Carolina Midlands and northward into Virginia. Significant snow, sleet and freezing rain accumulations are likely in all of these locations with this phase of the storm.
Locations that see the heaviest freezing rain accumulations will likely experience power outages and tree damage. From parts of north and central Georgia through central South Carolina and into eastern North Carolina, ice accumulations could be crippling with lengthy power outages and widespread tree damage. This area of concern is in the darker shadings of purple on our significant ice accumulation forecast map above at the right. Ice accumulations of a half inch to one inch are likely in parts in of this corridor.
Portions of the Atlanta metro area, Augusta, Ga., Columbia, S.C. and Raleigh, N.C. are some of the cities most at risk for major ice accumulations and power outages.
(MORE: Ice Storm Damage and Impacts)
Meanwhile, up to six inches or more of snow is likely to blanket locations from northeast Georgia through the Southern Appalachians and into Virginia Wednesday into Wednesday night. This includes Asheville, N.C., Greensboro, N.C., Charlotte, N.C. and Roanoke, Va. Some locations in this swath could approach a foot of snow.
Freezing rain will also eventually change to accumulating snow across northern parts of Georgia, including Atlanta, Wednesday evening.
While there remains a degree of uncertainty in the exact snowfall and ice totals in these areas through Wednesday, impacts are likely to be significant with widespread travel disruption likely.

Thursday's Forecast

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Middle Atlantic, Northeast Snow

Late Wednesday into Thursday, low pressure will slide up near or off the East Coast.
(MORE: February Peak for Northeast Snowstorms)
As is almost always the case, the exact track of the coastal low will be crucial. A track a bit farther offshore would draw snow toward the coast, while a farther inland track would shift the rain/snow line farther inland.
It is too soon to determine exactly where the surface low will track. Therefore, critical details including timing and who will see the most snow, who may see more rain than snow, and whether there will be any ice, such as we saw with Winter Storm Nika, are all quite uncertain.
Bottom line: There is a potential for significant accumulating snow in the Northeast, including the I-95 urban corridor from Washington to Boston, from late Wednesday through Thursday or early Friday. The forecast map for Thursday above (at right) represents our best forecast right now, but it's subject to change over the next few days.
(FORECAST: Washington | Philly | NYC | Boston)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest updates on Winter Storm Pax.

MORE: Winter Storm Leon Photos

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This photo taken with a fisheye lens over I-459 shows the remnants of a winter snow storm that slammed into the South and turned highways into parking lots on Wednesday, Jan. 29, 2014, in Mountain Brook, Ala. (AP Photo/David Tulis)