Extreme Fire Danger, Record Highs Possible in California as Drought Worsens

By: By Chris Dolce

Published: January 13,2014

 

 

 

 

The weather pattern along the West Coast this week is one that was all too common last year and led to a record dry 2013 in California.

High pressure in the upper atmosphere this week.

A dominant ridge, or area of high pressure aloft, is acting as a block to any potential for precipitation in the Golden State. Not only does this so-called ridge prevent Pacific weather systems from affecting California with rain and snow, it's also leading to near-record temperatures and a high fire danger this week.

Santa Ana Winds: Extreme Fire Danger

Although much of the state is prone to wildfires now given the severe to extreme drought conditions currently in place, Santa Ana winds are making the situation even worse in Southern California this week.
(VIDEO: What Are Santa Ana Winds?)
A strong area of high pressure migrating slowly to the east into the Great Basin will result in northeasterly winds gusting between 50 and 60 mph (locally 70+ mph) through midweek in the mountains and foothills of Southern California. This includes the mountains of Los Angeles, Ventura and San Diego Counties.

Fire Danger: Red Flag Warning

In addition, the offshore wind flow descending from the mountains into the lower elevations is causing the air to dry out, sending daytime humidity levels as low as 5 to 15 percent.
The low humidity in combination with the strong winds and dry vegetation is resulting in an extreme fire danger that will last through at least Wednesday in Southern California.
(MORE: Wildfire Safety)
High wind warnings and red flag warnings for fire danger are posted.
(CURRENT ALERTS: High Wind | Fire Danger)

Near-Record Warmth

The area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere and the offshore wind flow is also pushing temperatures close to daily record highs into Thursday. Here are a few examples:

• San Francisco: Highs in the middle to upper 60s Tuesday through Thursday. Current daily record highs to beat: Tue (67), Wed (69), Thu (69)
• Sacramento: Highs near 70 degrees through Friday. Current daily record highs to beat: Tue (65), Wed (68), Thu (67)
• Los Angeles: Highs in the low to middle 80s through Friday. Current daily record highs to beat: Tue (88), Wed (85), Thu (86)
• San Diego: Highs near 80 degrees Tuesday through Thursday. Current daily record highs to beat: Tue (82), Wed (80), Thu (86)

(FORECAST HIGHS: Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri)

Any Rain or Snow Ahead?

California Drought Status

Areas shaded in red and orange are in extreme and severe drought, respectively.

The prospects for any significant rain or mountain snow in California over the next seven to 10 days look dismal, according to the latest computer model forecast guidance. If this type of pattern were to persist through the final week of the month, many January precipitation records could fall by the wayside.
According to the National Weather Service in Monterey, Calif., San Francisco has never seen a January with less than a quarter inch of rain. With just one-hundredth of an inch of rain so far this month, this record could be in jeopardy. In addition, San Francisco has only recorded five days with measurable rain since Nov. 1 compared to an average of 30 days during the period from Nov. 1 to Jan. 31.
January is one of the two wettest months of the year in Los Angeles with an average of 3.12 inches of rain. If the second half of the month finishes with no rain, January 2014 would join only four other Januarys in the last 100 years that no rain was recorded (2003, 1976, 1972, 1948).
MORE: Photos of the Rim Fire in August 2013

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In this photo provided by the U.S. Forest Service, fire crew members stand watch near a controlled burn operation near Yosemite National Park in Calif., Sept. 2, 2013. (AP Photo/U.S. Forest Service/Mike McMillan)