Tropical System to Reach the Gulf, Drench Part of South

By Michael Doll, Meteorologist

October 2,2013; 6:36PM,EDT

 

 

A disturbance moving across the northwestern Caribbean Sea is being monitored for tropical development late this week as it aims for the central Gulf of Mexico.
The next name on the list of Atlantic tropical storms for the 2013 season is Karen.
The thunderstorms with this system have been moving in a northwest direction across the southern and central Caribbean during the last two days.
Into early Wednesday, wind shear had been a bit too strong and an inhibiting factor in development.

@NWSMobile tweeted: "We continue to monitor an area of low pressure in wrn Caribbean..projected to move into Gulf of Mexico late this week." Additional Relevant Tweets and Social Media Reaction

As this area of thunderstorms moves toward the north-northwest through late week, wind shear could relax enough and allow for better organization as it reaches the southern and central Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of status, this feature will bring drenching thunderstorms at times to the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday. As a result, localized flash flooding will be a threat to those areas.

On Friday, this feature will move northward across the central Gulf of Mexico toward the central or perhaps eastern U.S. Gulf coast.

This weekend, a strong cold front will move across the Mississippi Valley and into the Southeast.
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This will help pull the moisture from this Gulf of Mexico system northward and enhance rainfall from the Gulf coast to part of the interior South. The rain can be heavy enough to alleviate recent dry conditions in some locations and may raise the risk of flooding for parts of the region this weekend.
A pocket of 3- to 6-inch rainfall can occur close to the center of the storm track.
The aforementioned cold front will eventually bring showers and some thunderstorms to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast late on Sunday into Monday. There is a chance the tropical moisture enhances the rainfall across parts of the mid-Atlantic and New England early next week, where the rain is most needed and the weather of late has been more like summer.