By: Terrell Johnson
Published: August 14,2013
Warming temperatures across the world are likely to do more than just make tornadoes
stronger and hurricanes more powerful. They could also make wildfires
bigger, more ferocious and more common, especially across the West,
according to a new NASA report.
In a video animation released last week (shown above), the agency looked at what the worldwide environment for fires will be like by the end of this century, based on data gathered by two of its main Earth-observing satellites over the past decade.
The observations NASA gathered – and the climate models based on them – show that the hotter, drier conditions seen this year across the West are a pattern that's likely to persist long into the future, thanks to the impact of climate change.
"As we look out towards the end of this century, we’re seeing years like 2012 – which was very dry across the front range of the Rockies and the Midwest – that kind of a fire season being the new normal by the end of this century," said Doug Morton, a scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.
"There’s certainly a trend toward hotter and drier conditions in areas that are already experiencing fires, and even an increase in fires in places where fires haven’t historically been important," he added, in places like the Upper Midwest and the northern Great Plains.
(MORE: Expect Bigger, Fiercer Wildfires in the West, Experts Say)
The three factors that have the biggest influence on where fires ignite and grow are weather conditions, the topography of the land, and the fuels available, noted Elizabeth Reinhardt of the USDA Forest Service in a video interview, adding that the only one of those factors humans can control is the amount of fuels, the vegetation in forests that allow fires to develop.
Because so many people have migrated to the western U.S. in recent decades – and have built so many homes and communities in or near former wildland areas –- the damage fires can do today is multiplied. "As the population shifts, and more and more people move into harm's way of these fires, it becomes a serious problem," Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in a video interview.
"A good forecast of fires is drought," he added. "And as we look into the future of the West, one of the climate forecasts is for not only a warmer West, but a drier West. And so that definitely translates into a more fiery West.”
Already by Aug. 8, NASA reported, wildfires had burned more than 2.5 million acres of forests across the U.S. And the fire season is starting now earlier than in the past, much earlier in some parts of the country – especially in California and Alaska, said Morton.
"If you think about those conditions that favor fires, those extreme events – things we consider now to be a once-a-decade kind of activity – those are certainly on the rise," Morton added, pointing out that places like Australia, southern Africa and the western U.S. all can expect to see more extreme fire conditions in the future.
In a video animation released last week (shown above), the agency looked at what the worldwide environment for fires will be like by the end of this century, based on data gathered by two of its main Earth-observing satellites over the past decade.
The observations NASA gathered – and the climate models based on them – show that the hotter, drier conditions seen this year across the West are a pattern that's likely to persist long into the future, thanks to the impact of climate change.
"As we look out towards the end of this century, we’re seeing years like 2012 – which was very dry across the front range of the Rockies and the Midwest – that kind of a fire season being the new normal by the end of this century," said Doug Morton, a scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center.
"There’s certainly a trend toward hotter and drier conditions in areas that are already experiencing fires, and even an increase in fires in places where fires haven’t historically been important," he added, in places like the Upper Midwest and the northern Great Plains.
(MORE: Expect Bigger, Fiercer Wildfires in the West, Experts Say)
The three factors that have the biggest influence on where fires ignite and grow are weather conditions, the topography of the land, and the fuels available, noted Elizabeth Reinhardt of the USDA Forest Service in a video interview, adding that the only one of those factors humans can control is the amount of fuels, the vegetation in forests that allow fires to develop.
Because so many people have migrated to the western U.S. in recent decades – and have built so many homes and communities in or near former wildland areas –- the damage fires can do today is multiplied. "As the population shifts, and more and more people move into harm's way of these fires, it becomes a serious problem," Bill Patzert, a climatologist with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said in a video interview.
"A good forecast of fires is drought," he added. "And as we look into the future of the West, one of the climate forecasts is for not only a warmer West, but a drier West. And so that definitely translates into a more fiery West.”
Already by Aug. 8, NASA reported, wildfires had burned more than 2.5 million acres of forests across the U.S. And the fire season is starting now earlier than in the past, much earlier in some parts of the country – especially in California and Alaska, said Morton.
"If you think about those conditions that favor fires, those extreme events – things we consider now to be a once-a-decade kind of activity – those are certainly on the rise," Morton added, pointing out that places like Australia, southern Africa and the western U.S. all can expect to see more extreme fire conditions in the future.
MORE: Wildfires Across the West
A home destroyed by a wildfire on Aug. 9, 2013, near Banning, Calif. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
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