Rain Has Returned to the Southeast, But How Much More Rain Is Needed to End the Drought?

Linda Lam
Published: November 30,2016
Much-needed rain finally arrived in the Southeast this week and more rain is on the way for this weekend.
Unfortunately, this is not a drought erasing rain and many areas still need a substantial amount of rainfall for drought conditions to be removed. However, this rain is helpful in bringing some drought relief, as well as in assisting the fight against the wildfires.
(MORE: Latest on Gatlinburg, Pigeon Forge Wildfire)
The amount of rain that has fallen so far varies across the region.
This week, through 8 p.m. EST Wednesday, the following rainfall totals have been reported:

• Jackson, Mississippi: 2.82 inches
• Birmingham, Alabama: 2.06 inches
• Huntsville, Alabama: 4.55 inches
• Nashville, Tennessee: 1.72 inches
• Chattanooga, Tennessee: 5.42 inches
• Knoxville, Tennessee: 5.51 inches
• Atlanta, Georgia: 2.98 inches
• Macon, Georgia: 1.14 inches
• Asheville, North Carolina: 1.56 inches
• Greenville, South Carolina: 1.00 inches

This soaking rain has been beneficial and in some spots, including Knoxville and Chattanooga, which have now received close to their normal November rainfall in just the last few days.
(MORE: Thirsty Southern Drought Areas Finally Have Seen a Widespread Soaking)
However, significant precipitation deficits persist across the region. Through Nov. 28, Atlanta and Asheville, North Carolina, remain more than 10 inches below average since the beginning of the year and Birmingham, Alabama, is just over 12 inches below average year-to-date.

Precipitation needed in 4 weeks to end drought conditions.
(NOAA)

The above graphic shows how much more rain is needed to end the drought in the Southeast.
The areas in blue and purple indicate where more than a foot of rain is necessary over a four week time period to end the drought, including portions of eastern Tennessee, southwestern North Carolina, northwestern South Carolina, northern Georgia, northern Alabama and east-central Mississippi. Locations in central Georgia, central Alabama and parts of Mississippi highlighted in red are where 9 to 12 inches of rain is necessary to end drought conditions.
(PHOTOS: Deep South Drought, November 2016)
These values are estimates and do not take into account whether it is a heavy down pour or steady rain. This data is also as of Nov. 26, 2016, so it does not take into account the rain that fell this week.

More Rain Ahead

The good news is that more rainfall is expected across the South this weekend.
There is still some uncertainty in the forecast details, given that we are still a few days away. However, it appears likely that a disturbance will move across the South this weekend into early next week.

Rainy setup for this weekend.

Here is the current expected timing of the rain:

• Friday night: Rain will spread across Texas and Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
• Saturday: Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will stretch from Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Overnight the rain will spread into the Tennessee Valley and possibly as far east as western North Carolina by early Sunday morning. The northern extent of the rain may reach into southern Missouri and southern Indiana.
• Sunday: Wet conditions are expected from central Texas through the Carolinas and northward into the Ohio Valley.
• Monday: Showers may linger into the start of the work week across the Southeast.

Rainfall will likely be in the 1 to 3 inch range for much of the South, while areas of eastern Texas, southern Arkansas and western Louisiana may see total greater than 3 inches.
Flash flooding may develop in some areas as well, especially if and where repeated rounds of heavy rain develop.
(FORECAST: Atlanta | Nashville | Birmingham | Jackson, Mississippi)

Rainfall Forecast

Thunderstorms are also expected, especially in southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana and along the Gulf Coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. There is the chance of a few severe thunderstorms developing, but it is to early for details.
The rain will also keep temperatures cool, with most areas seeing highs near to slightly below average. This translates into temperatures topping out in the 40s and 50s, with 60s along sections of the Gulf Coast.
(MORE: December Temperature Outlook)
This wet pattern will likely continue across the South into next week, which is good news.
Check back to weather.com for the latest forecast updates.
MORE: Gatlinburg, Tennessee Wildfire, November 2016 (PHOTOS)