Headlines
- Typhoon Kilo was moving west-northwest well to the well northwest of Wake Island on Monday.
- Kilo is expected to strengthen some in the western Pacific early this week before weakening to a tropical storm late in the week.
- Kilo could survive as a tropical cyclone for another five days or so as it curves north and then northeastward.
- We can't yet rule out a close pass to the Japanese mainland late this week. However, the most recent computer model guidance suggests that the center of Kilo should pass east of Japan.
- At one point this past Saturday evening (Aug. 29) into Sunday morning (Aug. 30), Kilo was one of three Category 4 hurricanes in the Pacific, joined by Jimena and Ignacio.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Kilo's Location, History, and Forecast Path
Projected Path
It's...Still...Going
Kilo was first classified as a depression almost 700 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, on August 20.While, thankfully, never getting its convective act together in time to pose a threat to Hawaii, Kilo finally did so roughly one week later well west-southwest of the islands, intensifying to Category 4 strength.
And it's not done yet.
Instead of turning north, getting caught by the jet stream, and turning into a post-tropical storm over the North Pacific Ocean, high pressure aloft over the western Pacific to the east-southeast of Japan has steered Kilo westward.
Kilo may, eventually, come uncomfortably close to the Japanese mainland late this week, though the majority of our guidance suggests eventually the jet stream will catch up with Kilo and turn it back northeast before striking the mainland.
This forecast could change, however, so all interests in the Japanese islands of Honshu and Hokkaido should continue to monitor the progress of Kilo.
Regardless of a possible turn away from Japan, large swells generated from Kilo will push toward the east coast of Japan in the week ahead, leading to dangerous surf, rip currents, and possible coastal flooding in spots.
Kilo is already over 3,000 statute miles from its genesis point as a depression over two weeks ago. This is greater than the shortest flight distance between New York and San Francisco.
While that distance is not atypical for tropical cyclones, Kilo may persist as a tropical cyclone another seven days, before the jet stream finally catches it and it becomes a post-tropical cyclone.
According to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, the longest-lived tropical cyclone on record in any basin was Hurricane/Typhoon John, which lasted for 30 days ending early on September 10, 1994.
As you can see in the HRD list, tropical cyclones lasting three weeks or more are quite rare. Kilo may join that rare company this week.
Furthermore, time spent as a Category 3 or stronger tropical cyclone may also approach record territory for the Pacifc Basin, according to Colorado State University tropical expert, Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Wunderblog).
Klotzbach also said Tuesday Kilo became the third tropical cyclone to cross the International Dateline this year, breaking the old record for any year set in 1997.
Hawaii in the Rearview Mirror
Despite Kilo's inability to organize last week, the large-scale circulation near Hawaii brought enhanced moisture to the Aloha State, leading to locally heavy rainfall.Honolulu picked up 4.48 inches of rain from early last Sunday morning (Aug. 23) through early this past Tuesday morning (local time), resulting in some road flooding and road closures on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Rain rates of 3-4 inches per hour were estimated by radar early Tuesday morning approaching Kauai.
Thunderstorms over the islands produced up to an estimated 10,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over a 24-hour period from midday last Sunday (Aug. 23) through midday last Monday (Aug. 24), according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Honolulu's 3.53 inches on Aug. 24 was an all-time record for any August day, topping a 2.92-inch deluge from Aug. 4, 2004, and propelled the Hawaiian capital to its wettest month of August, besting that record which had stood since 1888 (4.47 inches).
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