Typhoon Noul (Dodong) Will Threaten Philippines This Weekend (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: May 8,2015



 
Typhoon Noul, the western Pacific basin's sixth named tropical cyclone of the year, is gaining strength and will continue to move on a path that may take it near or over the northern Philippines this weekend.
(INTERACTIVE: Satellite Image of Noul)

Infrared Satellite Image

Noul has steadily strengthened to a Category 3 equivalent typhoon, and further strengthening is forecast by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center through Saturday. Noul could reach Category 4 equivalent (131 mph) intensity anytime in the next few days.

Latest forecast path and intensity of center of Noul from the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Circles denote uncertainty in location of center at each forecast time period.

Some uncertainty remains in the exact future track of Noul, known as "Dodong" in the Philippines, which will dictate impacts there.
However, the trend in the forecast is increasingly the likelihood of a landfall on the northern island of Luzon late Saturday night into Sunday, local time.
If a sharper and/or sooner northwest, then north turn of Noul occurs, however, wind and surge impacts in the northern Philippines would be less.
That said, in both of these scenarios, heavy rain and flooding would be possible in the northern Philippines along with large, battering waves.
At this time, given the somewhat small size of Noul's circulation, we expect the most severe wind impacts to remain north of the Philippines capital of Manila, though that forecast track could change. Bands of locally heavy rain may be a threat, there, regardless.
After passing the Philippines, Noul could bring some impacts to both Taiwan and Okinawa early next week as it moves northward.
Typhoon Noul brought strong winds and heavy rain to Yap Island Tuesday and Wednesday, local time. Winds gusted up to 68 mph at Yap International Airport, and more than 10 inches of rain was reported.
Western Pacific tropical cyclones, known as typhoons when they reach hurricane-equivalent status, can form any time of year.
Owing partially to this year-round calendar of potential development, roughly one-third of all the Earth's tropical cyclones form in the western Pacific Basin. On average, 25 tropical cyclones form each year in the western Pacific Basin, with 15-16 of those strengthening to Category 1 equivalent typhoons.
(MORE: Hurricane Central | Tropical Update)
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this latest western Pacific tropical cyclone.

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