By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
May 10,2015; 11:48AM,EDT
The coast of the Carolinas continues to bear the brunt of Tropical Storm Ana through the Mother's Day weekend and into the beginning of the new week.
Ana became the first named tropical system of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thursday night.
Ana was first classified as a subtropical, or hybrid storm, having some warm, tropical features and some cool, non-tropical features. Early Saturday morning, Ana became fully tropical and a stronger tropical storm.
Even though Ana has weakened since moving onshore, it is still expected to deliver tropical storm conditions of areas of the Carolinas into Sunday evening. This includes drenching rain and gusty winds, as well as rough surf at the beaches.
The risk to lives and property will be low for land areas, due to Ana being forecast to remain a tropical storm. However, there are some risks for people remaining on land and significant danger for those venturing in the surf or heading to sea in small craft.
Rainfall averaging 2-4 inches in southeastern North Carolina and neighboring parts of the South Carolina coast will raise the risk of flooding on roadways and low-lying areas. Even if flooding does not occur, the downpours will dramatically reduce visibility for motorists.
As of Sunday morning, Wilmington, N.C. already had 1.1 inches of rain, and Myrtle Beach, S.C. already had 1.21 inches of rain.
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While winds are not likely to become strong enough to cause widespread damage, there could be downed tree limbs and sporadic power outages, especially where locally gusty thunderstorms occur.
Winds gust will reach as high as about 40 mph with sustained winds in the mid-30s. along the Carolina coast for a time through Sunday. Gusts can be significantly higher in thunderstorms.
Seas were averaging 10-14 feet offshore of the Carolinas on Saturday evening. "That will translate to the coast in the form of very rough and dangerous surf into the weekend before subsiding early next week," stated AccuWeather.com Hurricane Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.
Since Ana's landfall early Sunday, the rough seas offshore have lessened, however, there will still be hazardous impacts, especially to the coastlines.
The constant bombardment of rough surf will lead to beach erosion focusing on North Carolina. The rough surf continues to cause frequent and strong rip currents, which will pose dangers to bathers.
Persistent onshore winds will also bring the potential for coastal flooding in portions of North Carolina, particularly at times of high tide. Rough seas and squalls associated with the storm will make for dangerous conditions for small craft outside of protected coastal waters.
Through the end of the weekend, Ana will also produce higher-than-normal seas from Delaware to near the northern part of the Bahamas and eastern Florida.
"While people should stay out of the water along the Carolina and Georgia coasts in this situation, this will be a storm for people to think of what they need to do for hurricane preparation for the upcoming season," Kottlowski said.
Ana will help to strengthen an area of high pressure that will pump building warmth and sunshine in much of the East.
Direct impact from Ana as a tropical storm is not likely to occur in the Northeast or penetrate hundreds of miles inland in the South this weekend.
Ana, in diminished form, will be pulled northeastward ahead of an approaching cool front across part of the mid-Atlantic and southeastern New England Monday into Tuesday. Ana's moisture will become embedded with moisture from the front in the form of showers and thunderstorms.
The atmospheric roadblock will keep rounds of severe weather over the Plains this weekend.
AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok is monitoring the Atlantic Basin for additional development later in May.
"It is possible a tropical system slowly takes shape in the Gulf of Mexico during the third week of May along the tail end of a front with high pressure to the north," Pastelok said.
AccuWeather has released its summer forecast for the U.S. and will release its Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast for 2015 on May 13.
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