Northeast Could See Snow As Spring Arrives (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: March 17, 2015

Spring, the vernal equinox, officially arrives at 6:45 p.m. EDT Friday. We don't need to remind anyone of the magnitude of the winter folks in New England and other parts of the Northeast have faced.
(MORE: New England's Record-Smashing Snow Season)
While Boston's seasonal snow record has been well documented, there are also a couple of snow cover longevity notables from this winter that you may not have heard about:
- Newark, New Jersey: Record 45 straight days with at least 1 inch snow cover (ended March 9).
- Syracuse, New York: Record 19 straight days with over 2 feet of snow cover (ended March 9).
- Machias, Maine: Set daily snow depth records from Jan. 28-March 11, then again on March 16 (40 inches).
So it only stands to reason that snow is on the table as spring arrives. Here's what we know now.

Low pressure near the Northeast seaboard may wrap moisture into lingering cold air to wring out wet snow for some on Friday and Friday night.

The Ingredients

In the wake of yet another snowmaker for Downeast Maine and parts of Atlantic Canada Tuesday, fresh, cold air will be dragged into the Northeast.
(FORECAST: The Cold Returns)
Disturbances in the northern (polar) and southern (subtropical) jet streams and associated moisture will swing into the Northeast on Thursday.
In response, an area of low pressure will spin up off the Northeast seaboard Friday and Friday night.
Before you become concerned that this sounds like another big Northeast snowstorm, there are several aspects that mitigate this threat:
- The cold air becomes more "stale" by Friday, thus near-surface temperatures may allow for some melting of falling snow.
- It's also late March. With the sun higher in the sky, that would also add several degrees of warmth to an air mass compared to what we would see in January or February.
- The offshore low-pressure system isn't expected to become strong. Therefore, strong winds will not be an issue.
- This system is expected to exit quickly by Saturday. Therefore, this will limit the potential for heavy precipitation.

Friday's Forecast

Friday Night's Forecast

The Forecast

This far out, we have typical uncertainties with virtually all snow events.
A low track more directly east would take most of the precipitation out to sea faster than a track closer to the Northeast coast.
Furthermore, it remains to be determined the rain/snow line, that zone delineating where precipitation falls mainly as rain vs. mainly as wet snow.
For now, here is our forecast timing:

• Thursday night: Some wet snow may fall in the northern Appalachians and a few flakes may push as far north as parts of Pennsylvania overnight. There will be a steady rain south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
• Friday: Wet snow is possible from Maryland to the Hudson Valley, Long Island and southern and central New England. 
• Friday night: Wet snow continues particularly over southern New England and Long Island. A little snow is also possible in Upstate New York and northern New England.

Here is our latest outlook on snowfall amounts:

• Several inches of wet snow: Southern New England westward into central Pennsylvania. Generally, snowfall totals less than 6 inches are expected in these areas.
• Lesser accumulation: I-95 corridor south of Philadelphia into northern and western Virginia. Some snowfall may initially melt on roads Friday.

(FORECASTS: Boston | NYC | Philly | Baltimore | Washington)

Average date of last measurable snow of the season, snow that typically falls after March 20, and the percent of the season's snow that falls after March 20.

Perspective: The Last Snow of the Season

If you're truly sick of snow, you're probably wondering when the last snow of the season occurs.
While every season is different, the season's last accumulating snow typically falls from late February as far south as the Nation's Capital, to late March in southern New England, to April in Maine.
In snow-weary Boston, it's par for the course to pick up another 3-4 inches of snow after March 20. Bangor, Maine can expect another 7-8 inches of spring snow, comprising roughly one-eighth their season's average snowfall.
Last spring, 0.3 inch of snow fell in Boston on April 16. Boston's previous record snow season featured an April 7-10, 1996 dumping of 7.3 inches of snow.
Of course, we'd be remiss not mentioning the April Fools' Blizzard of 1997, when 25.4 inches of snow in just 24 hours paralyzed Boston and parts of southern New England.
Check back with us at weather.com and The Weather Channel for updates to this forecast as the week goes on.

MORE: Boston's Snow Misery 2015