Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Hagupit at 05:00 UTC on Saturday December 6, 2014. At the time, Hagupit was a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Radar image of Typhoon Hagupit taken at 10:15 pm local time, one hour after landfall in Northern Samar Island in the Philippines. Image credit: Project NOAH.
Forecast for Hagupit: storm surge, high winds, and heavy rains are major threats
Hagupit will move west to west-northwest over the weekend at a slow forward speed of 5 -10 mph. The center will be over land much of the time, which will force the storm to weaken; moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 mph will aid this weakening process. Storm surge damage will be very heavy, as Project NOAH is predicting storm surge heights as high as 4.6 meters (15 feet) on the west side of Samar Island at Catbalogan. High winds will also cause widespread destruction, particularly to crops. However, the greatest danger from the storm may come from its rains. Hagupit's slow forward speed will allow torrential rains to fall for a long period of time, and widespread rainfall amounts of 10 - 15 inches are likely, with some mountainous areas receiving 15 - 25 inches. Since Hagupit is likely to track very close to the capital city of Manila as a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon, heavy rains of 10 - 15" could affect this heavily populated part the country resulting in yet another billion-dollar typhoon disaster for the Philippines. Hagupit's closest approach to Manila will likely come around 06 UTC on Monday. In addition, special lahar warnings have been put out for mudslides for two volcanoes along Hagupit's path, Mayan and Bulusan, whose flanks have unstable ash deposits from recent eruptions. A total of 650,000 people have been evacuated for Hagupit, and I am hopeful this effort will keep the death toll relatively low.
Figure 3. Predicted precipitation from Typhoon Hagupit from the 06 UTC Saturday run of the GFDL hurricane model. Widespread areas of 8 - 16" (yellow colors), with some areas of 16+ inches were predicted. The capital of Manila was in an area expected to receive 10 - 15" of rain. Image credit: NOAA/GFDL.
Links
If you want to make a charitable donation to storm relief in the Philippines, consider a donation to DirectRelief. As discussed by Dr. Greg Laden in his blog, DirectRelief is a private humanitarian nonprofit organization based in Santa Barbara, California, with a mission to “improve the health and lives of people affected by poverty or emergency situations by mobilizing and providing essential medical resources needed for their care." They have three strategically pre-positioned typhoon modules with enough medicines and supplies to treat 5,000 people for a month following the Hagupit disaster. DirectRelief's Hagupit web page is here.
Storm chaser James Reynolds is in Calbayog on the west coast of Samar Island in the Philippines, which will receive a direct hit from Hagupit. He is offering updates via his Twitter feed.
Latest storm news from Philippine news site rappler.com.
Storm surge expert Hal Needham has a new blog post on storm surge observations from Hagupit, plus a post on the history of storm surges in the Philippines.
Matching donation challenge: Portlight's "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, has launched a month-long fundraising campaign called "Giving Tuesday and Beyond". They aim to raise $20,000 this month. I challenge the wunderground community to show their generosity this giving season: for each dollar donated between now and Monday, I pledge to make a matching donation. Here’s a sampling of what the money will go towards in 2015:
- Holding more Getting It Right conferences, starting in Hampton Roads, Virginia, in late February.
- Launching a traveling photo exhibit – “Disastrous: Left Behind” – in the lobby of FEMA’s headquarters in late January, with many more venues to follow around the country.
- Celebrating the 25th anniversary of the ADA on July 26th, 2015.
- Continuing to streamline their disaster response process in order to immediately respond better, faster, and smarter.
Portlight Strategies’ mission is to provide disaster services to the disability community, and to foster inclusive disaster planning and response for people with all types of disabilities. You can donate at the "Giving Tuesday and Beyond" campaign page. As always, you can visit the Portlight Blog or Portlight website to stay current on their latest efforts.
Video 1. ISS Flyover of Typhoon Hagupit at (4x speed) on December 6, 2014. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this link in my blog comments.
Jeff Masters
hi
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